The Election Day Storm Of November 8, 1977

Each year when Election Day comes around in early November, I remember back to a powerful coastal storm that pounded our Tri-State region back on Election Day in 1977. The storm produced rainfall records across our region that still stand to this day and probably will for many years to come. The storm had two rounds to it. The first round of heavy rain combined with strong east to northeast winds swept through our region during the day on Monday November 7. The rain was heavy enough to produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Driving and walking became difficult as the rain and wind caused a lot of leaves to fall off the trees. The fall foliage was at peak levels throughout the area, so it was no surprise to see them fall in the quantity they did. The rain and wind abated as we went into the evening hours. We went into a lull during the night, but the worst of the storm was yet to come.
As we awoke on Election morning Tuesday November 8, voting was not the only story that dominated the news. It was clear that we were going to be in for a potentially dangerous weather day. The wind and rain we had endured the day before was about to return. The intensity of the rain quickly increased before schools opened. By late morning the rain had become torrential with rates of 1 inch per hour. By the time the rain finally began to taper off late in the afternoon, a record 7.40 inches had fallen for the date at Central Park New York. Not only was it a new record for November 8, but it still stands as the most rain ever for any day in November at the park since records began there in 1869. In addition to that record at the park, the storm also set a 24 hour record rainfall for November 7-8 of 8.09 inches.
These record rains led to damaging floods across the entire region. The urban areas experienced significant street, highway and basement flooding. Some roads were totally impassable. Over inland areas, the torrential rains led to stream and river flooding across the Tri-State region. It took days before the flood waters receded in some areas and a lot of damage was left behind. It is not unusual for the East Coast to get heavy rains during November, but this storm was one for the record books in our area. It is one that I will never forget. I am predicting we will see some rain and wind events this November, but I do not think we will have a repeat of 1977. As I always say however, we'll see what Mother Nature has in store for us.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale

The 2010-11 Winter Outlook

Now that we have reached October and the weather pattern has finally changed from summer to one that looks and feels more like autumn, it is time for this meteorologist to share my thoughts about the upcoming winter of 2010-11 in our area. This upcoming winter will be different from last winter. In looking at the long range trends and jet stream patterns, I feel that this upcoming winter will feature near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation in the New York Metropolitan Area. This means that our region and the East Coast will not see the severity and frequency of winter storms we experienced last winter. This does not mean we won't see cold weather outbreaks and winter storms. We will still see outbreaks of Arctic air from time to time as well as chances at snow and other wintry precipitation. The difference is that they won't be as frequent and prolonged as last winter. The jet stream pattern favors quick changes, so the cold outbreaks we receive will not stay in place very long but instead will be quickly followed by milder temperaturs. This pattern is also not favorable for the frequent and significant snowstorms we experienced last winter. We will probably see events that begin as snow, but then change over to rain or a wintry mix.

The reasons behind my prediction is that it appears that the northern branch of the jet stream will be strong, however the southern branch will not be as strong as last winter. This means that the United States will not see as many storms come ashore along southern California from the Pacific Ocean as we did last winter. A good number of these ended up becoming snowstorms along the East Coast when they bumped into the cold air in place. This is the way it looks to this meteorologist at this point in time. I will continue to monitor the long range patterns and provide any updates. As I always say, Mother Nature will have the final say.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale