The 2010-11 Winter Outlook

Now that we have reached October and the weather pattern has finally changed from summer to one that looks and feels more like autumn, it is time for this meteorologist to share my thoughts about the upcoming winter of 2010-11 in our area. This upcoming winter will be different from last winter. In looking at the long range trends and jet stream patterns, I feel that this upcoming winter will feature near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation in the New York Metropolitan Area. This means that our region and the East Coast will not see the severity and frequency of winter storms we experienced last winter. This does not mean we won't see cold weather outbreaks and winter storms. We will still see outbreaks of Arctic air from time to time as well as chances at snow and other wintry precipitation. The difference is that they won't be as frequent and prolonged as last winter. The jet stream pattern favors quick changes, so the cold outbreaks we receive will not stay in place very long but instead will be quickly followed by milder temperaturs. This pattern is also not favorable for the frequent and significant snowstorms we experienced last winter. We will probably see events that begin as snow, but then change over to rain or a wintry mix.

The reasons behind my prediction is that it appears that the northern branch of the jet stream will be strong, however the southern branch will not be as strong as last winter. This means that the United States will not see as many storms come ashore along southern California from the Pacific Ocean as we did last winter. A good number of these ended up becoming snowstorms along the East Coast when they bumped into the cold air in place. This is the way it looks to this meteorologist at this point in time. I will continue to monitor the long range patterns and provide any updates. As I always say, Mother Nature will have the final say.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale