The Cold And Snowy Winter Of 2010-11 So Far

A few months ago, I posted my prediction for the winter of 2010-11. I predicted that we would not have the same winter we did last year. I thought that when all was said and done, we would end up with near normal temperatures and slightly below normal precipitation. My outlook was for a lot of quick changes from cold temperatures to mild temperatures. I also felt that we would not see the severity of snowstorms that we experienced last winter. Well, so much for that prediction. Instead, it looks as though Mother Nature has sent this meteorologist a slice of humble pie. We have experienced well below normal temperatures so far, and we have already exceeded the normal amount of snowfall for the entire season. The December 26-27 Blizzard alone went down as one of top five biggest snowstorms on record at New York City's Central Park. Why has it been so cold and snowy so far, and what lies ahead for the rest of the winter?

Prior to December, we went through a stretch of nine consecutive months from March thru November of above normal temperatures. The reason for the abnormal warmth was a strong ridge of high pressure both at the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere that covered the eastern two-thirds of the United States. This ridge pushed the jet stream north into Canada, thus preventing cold air from the north from invading the Nation. As we progressed through November, this ridge started to break down. It started first in the Rockies and West Coast and then progressed east across the rest of the country as we went into December. The ridge has been replaced instead by a deep trof, or dip in the jet stream. This has allowed the cold air that was locked up in Canada and the Arctic to pour down into most of the United States, including our area. Since the trof has dipped down into the deep South, it has brought up moisture from the Gulf Coast along with energy an several occasions. This has led to two major snowstorms so far in our region and New England.

So, the sixty four thousand dollar question is, what lies ahead for the rest of the winter? Once these patterns set up, they sometimes last for a long time, as the ridge did for most of 2010. It appears to me that the trof is somewhat locked in place over the U.S. It may change position at some point and move further west. If this occurs, we will go through a period of much milder temperatures. This happened in our region back in February 1984. After a very cold and stormy December and January, we had two weeks of much warmer temperatures during February. I would not be surprised if the same thing happens this year. However, until the trof breaks down or moves further west, I am afraid we will continue to see outbreaks of cold and more chances for snow in our region. Long range weather prediction has many perils to it, just like Mother Nature has a lot of humble pie for all of us meteorologists.

Meteorologist Iggy Camporeale